Time:2025-06-18
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Industrial robots: domestic substitution accelerates from 2015 to 2025, expanding market share year by year
In November 2015, according to Xinhua News Agency:
Most domestic robots only know how to ‘grab things‘
The robotics industry divides the entire industry chain into three levels: upstream is the core component, mainly the gearbox and control system, which is equivalent to the "brain" of robots; The midstream is the robot body, which is the "body" of the robot; Downstream is the system integrator, relying on core equipment from upstream and midstream to produce integrated products. Not only in the Pearl River Delta region, but also 90% of domestic robot companies are in the downstream sector. "This is a summary of the convergence of the industry‘s current situation by robot company owners interviewed by reporters.
90% of key components are imported
Entering the workshops of factories in the Pearl River Delta that have implemented the "machine replacement" program, one will find that industrial robots and robotic arms capable of intelligent automation operations are mostly products from ABB in Switzerland, Kuka in Germany, Yaskawa Electric in Japan, and Fanuc. According to the Guangdong Intelligent Robot Research Institute, foreign companies represented by these four companies accounted for over 70% of the Chinese industrial robot market last year. Another set of data also indicates that the market share of domestic industrial robots is not yet high. In 2014, the production of domestic industrial robots was 12000 units, accounting for only 20% of the domestic market sales. The development of industrial robots must overcome the key challenge of core robot component technology. One important reason why the Chinese industrial robot market is dominated by international giants is that core components such as reducers, servo motors, and controllers are "controlled by others" and mostly rely on imports, which makes domestic brand robots have little cost advantage compared to foreign brand robots.
From January to May 2023, China‘s industrial robot production totaled 182000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. According to Rui Industry‘s forecast, domestic industrial robot shipments will maintain a compound annual growth rate of 7% from 2023 to 2025.
In 2025, looking at the market share of industrial robots and core component suppliers, there have been many changes in the past 10 years, the biggest of which is the acceleration of domestic substitution and the gradual expansion of market share year by year.
In the first quarter of 2023, the sales of domestic small six axis robots (≤ 20kg 6-axis), large six axis robots (>20kg 6-axis), SCARA robots, and collaborative robots (Cobots) were 4.45/4.21/3.45/1 million units, respectively.
Industrial robot industry chain
According to industry research databases, the industrial robot industry chain includes three links: upstream core components, midstream robot bodies and software, and downstream system integration and application.
The upstream core components include sensors, controllers, reducers, and servo systems; The midstream includes robot body manufacturing and supporting software products; The downstream mainly involves system integration and application.
According to OFweek data, core components account for about 70% of the cost of industrial robots, with reducers, servo motors, and controllers accounting for approximately 35%/20%/15% respectively.
A reducer is a precision power transmission mechanism that utilizes a gear speed converter to operate a servo motor at an appropriate speed, increasing the rigidity of the mechanical body while outputting greater torque. Commonly used reducers include harmonic RV、 Planetary gears and cycloidal pinwheel reducers.
In the RV reducer market, Japanese company Nabotsk holds 51.80% of the domestic market share; In the competitive landscape of the harmonic reducer market, Japanese company Hamonak holds 35.50% of the domestic market share, ranking first in the industry.
Domestic RV reducer head manufacturers include Double Ring Drive, Zhongdalide, Nantong Zhenkang, Qinchuan Machine Tool, etc; In terms of harmonic reducers, Green Harmonic, Laifu Harmonic, Dazu Laser, Fude and others occupy the top market share.
The controller receives sensor information and generates corresponding control instructions based on it to control the robot to complete action tasks. According to the prospectus of Renesas Intelligent, universal motion controllers can be divided into three categories: PLC controllers, embedded controllers, and PC based control cards.
Since 2011, with the development of interconnected intelligence, the intelligent controller industry has entered a critical period of intelligent upgrading, gradually transitioning from traditional mechanical operations to electronic and intelligent operation upgrades.
Large and medium-sized PLCs are mainly made by foreign manufacturers, with a large space for domestic substitution. At present, the demand for large and medium-sized PLCs in China is mainly occupied by foreign manufacturers, including Siemens, Omron, and Rockwell; Siemens will account for over 50% in 2022. The proportion of domestically produced large PLCs is less than 10%, indicating an urgent need for localization.
In the third quarter of 2022, the localization rate of small PLCs was about 20.2%, the localization rate of medium and large PLCs was less than 10%, and the localization rate of large PLC systems was about 1%.
At present, local brands in China‘s PLC market are mainly Huichuan, Delta, Keyuan Intelligence, Zhongkong, and Hollysys. PLC is still in the early stage of localization, and there is still significant room for localization substitution.
The overlap between controller and servo system businesses is high, and their underlying technical logic is aimed at providing services for "control". Therefore, enterprises generally cover servo system and controller related businesses.
The servo motor market has a high concentration, with foreign brands being the main high-end brands, while domestic brands are mainly concentrated in the mid to high end and mid to low end. In 2022, domestic manufacturer Huichuan Technology had the largest market share, reaching 15.9%, with the rest being Japanese brands Yaskawa, Panasonic, Mitsubishi, and Taiwanese brand Delta.
Rare earth magnetic materials are important raw materials in the manufacturing process of servo motors, and suppliers include Zhongke Sanhuan, Jinli Permanent Magnet, Zhenghai Magnetic Materials, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Yingluo Hua.
Market pattern of industrial robot ontology
From the perspective of the competitive landscape of industrial robots, based on data from 2022, the first tier is still dominated by Fanuc, Yaskawa, ABB, and KUKA.
At present, the robot body market is still monopolized by foreign manufacturers. Although Midea Group has recently fully acquired KUKA, its main production bases are all overseas. If KUKA is considered as foreign investment, the foreign market share in the body field in China exceeds 65%,
In the second tier of competition, it is mainly composed of top Chinese manufacturers, such as Huichuan Technology, Eston, New Shida, Efte, Robotics (Xinsong), and Guangzhou Qifan, which have a high market share. These manufacturers have a first mover advantage in the vertical extension of the industrial robot industry chain.
In the first quarter of 2023, Estun, Huichuan Technology, and Efte entered the TOP10 list, with Estun ranking second with a market share of 8.2%, second only to Fanuc. Estun has the widest industrial chain layout.
From the overall industry landscape, in the industrial robot industry chain, control and execution systems are also links with relatively high domestic substitution rates. The domestic substitution rates in some sub sectors (CNC, servo, sensing/instrumentation, and robot bodies) are rapidly increasing, and the domestic substitution process in various links of industrial robots is accelerating, with a broad industry space.
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